Market Summary 11/7/09 - Sunday

Short summary today.

Crude oil finished the week up 1.16 to close at 78.16. Natural gas finished the week down .34 to close at 4.695. The commercial short position on crude is now over -203K up 22k last week. Ngas commercials made no change to their net long position last week. Technically crude is trading sideways above 76 with strong resistance at 82. With Natty this recent sell off has broke all fib levels and now a retest of the bear market lows at 4.33 is in play. So going long crude at 76 looks to a good long trade set and Natty is a wait and see based on how the 4.33 lows hold.

Market Summary 11/3/09 - Tuesday

This is the delayed version of the market summary.

Crude closed up 1.47 to close at 79.60. Natty closed up .098 at 4.922. ES closed up 2.75 points at 1041.75. Crude closed above the 20 MA or middle Bollinger Band which is bullish. After market, the API reported crude stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels, gasoline stocks rose by 501,000 barrels and distillate supplies increased by 1.8 million barrels. Natty is not in a bullish position however still below the 61.8% retrace. Crude needs to clear its 8 session down trend line in order to work higher on the upside. Natty needs to closes above 5.0 in a row to show it has made a swing low.

Daily Outlook 11/3/09 - Tuesday

This is the delayed version of the daily outlook.

Futures are down across the board this morning. Foreign currencies are weak as well. Crude is at 77.16. The globex low is at 77.03 and the globex high is at 78.46. The daily pivot is at 77.78 and the s1 pivot is at 76.91 and the R1 pivot is at 79.01. Natty is at 4.825 and the globex low is 4.76 at the globex high is at 4.874. The daily pivot is at 4.919 and the S1 pivot is at 4.722 and the R1 pivot is at 5.02.

With the huge spike in the dollar overnight(blew out stops on shorts above 77), foriegn currencies are weak this morning like the Euro and the GBP. This dollar strength is not good for the crude oil bulls and looks like 76 should get tested here. Natty should works its way lower as well. Support is at 76 and 4.72 on Natty. Below there support is at 74 and 4.33 respectively. resistance is at the globex highs on both Crude and Natty. I have bearish bias on both crude and natty today. See last nights summary for crude and natty charts they show the big picture and horizontal support........

Market Summary 11/2/09 - Monday

Delayed version of the market summary.

FYI - I am moving to California this week from Oklahoma so I am away from computer most of the time however will post outlook and summary. Crude was up 1.13 to close at 78.13 on ultra high volume of 412k. Natty finished down .221 to close at 4.824 on higher volume. Crude looks to be consolidating in the lower range of the Bollinger bands and needs to get over the middle band at 79 to turn the short term bullish for a retest of the high at 82. Support is at 76. For Natty it could not hold the 61.8% retrace which means most likely it will retest the lows at 4.33 on the December contract..................Resistance at 5.16 and minor support at 4.76 and major support at 4.33.

Daily Outlook 11/2/09 - Monday

Delayed version of the daily outlook.


Futures are up across the board. Foriegn currencies are up as well with the GBP down. Crude is up .71 77.71. The globex high is 78.25 and the globex low is 76.56. The daily pivot is at 78.02 and the R1 pviot is 79.19 and the S1 pivot is at 75.83. For Natty, the globex high is at 5.115 and the globex low is at 4.935. The daily pivot is at 5.089 and the S1 pivot is at 4.908 and the R1 5.227. The market looks to have more work on the down side so the bears will shorting into the rallys on the SnP. This should keep crude grounded. For Natty it looks a weak (sick) this morning breaking the 20 day low at 4.941. I have a neutral bias today for crude and a bearish bias for Natty. Support on crude is at 76 and for Natty at 4.72.